The Cost of Using Gas as a Transition Fuel in the Transition to Low-Carbon Energy: The Case Study of Poland and Selected European Countries

Abstract

The purpose of this article is to answer the question of whether it is economically justified to use natural gas as an interim fuel on the way to creating a low-emission energy sector from the perspective of Poland in comparison to other countries in the European Community. Despite the existence of numerous scientific studies concerning natural gas as a ‘bridge’ fuel, there is a lack of precise references to the situation of Poland in this respect, especially considering its specific situation in the historical development of energy, as well as the ongoing energy crisis caused by the Russia–Ukraine war. The study suggests that from Poland’s point of view, given the changes in natural gas prices resulting from a series of events of an international nature, gas investments are not economically justified in the economic climate (NPV of −891 million EUR) at present and will not be justified in the event of their anticipated changes (NPV of −691 million EUR), having its justification only in the presence of unlikely global changes (NPV of 2.37 billion EUR).