Estimated Incidence of Symptomatic Lyme Borreliosis Cases in Lublin, Poland in 2021

Author:

Colby Emily1,Olsen Julia1ORCID,Angulo Frederick J.1ORCID,Kelly Patrick1,Halsby Kate2,Pilz Andreas3ORCID,Sot Urszula4,Chmielewski Tomasz5,Pancer Katarzyna5ORCID,Moïsi Jennifer C.6,Jodar Luis1,Stark James H.7

Affiliation:

1. Vaccines, Antivirals, and Evidence Generation, Pfizer Biopharma Group, Collegeville, PA 19426, USA

2. Pfizer Vaccines, Tadworth, Surrey KT20 7NS, UK

3. Vaccines, Pfizer Corporation Austria, 1210 Vienna, Austria

4. Vaccine Medical Affairs, Pfizer Poland Inc., 02-092 Warsaw, Poland

5. National Institute of Public Health, 00-791 Warsaw, Poland

6. Pfizer Vaccines, 75014 Paris, France

7. Vaccines, Antivirals, and Evidence Generation, Pfizer Biopharma Group, Cambridge, MA 02139, USA

Abstract

Lyme borreliosis (LB), the most common tick-borne disease in Europe, is endemic to Poland. Despite public health surveillance with mandatory reporting of LB cases by physicians and laboratories, many symptomatic LB cases are not included in surveillance in Poland. We estimated the extent of the under-ascertainment of symptomatic LB cases via surveillance in the Polish province of Lublin to better understand Poland’s LB burden. The number of incident symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2010 was estimated from two seroprevalence studies conducted among adults in Lublin, as well as estimates of the proportion of asymptomatic LB cases and the duration of LB antibody persistence. The estimated number of incident symptomatic LB cases was compared to the number of surveillance-reported cases in Lublin to derive an under-ascertainment multiplier. This multiplier was applied to the number of surveillance-reported cases in 2021 to estimate the number and population-based incidence of symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2021. We estimate that there are 5.9 symptomatic LB cases for every surveillance-reported LB case in Lublin. Adjusting for under-ascertainment, the estimated number of symptomatic LB cases in Lublin in 2021 was 6204 (population-based incidence: 467.6/100,000). After adjustment for under-ascertainment, the incidence of symptomatic LB in Lublin, Poland, is high.

Funder

Valneva

Pfizer Inc.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Virology,Microbiology (medical),Microbiology

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