Synergistic Application of Multiple Machine Learning Algorithms and Hyperparameter Optimization Strategies for Net Ecosystem Productivity Prediction in Southeast Asia

Abstract

The spatiotemporal patterns and shifts of net ecosystem productivity (NEP) play a pivotal role in ecological conservation and addressing climate change. For example, by quantifying the NEP information within ecosystems, we can achieve the protection and restoration of natural ecological balance. Monitoring the changes in NEP enables a more profound understanding and prediction of ecosystem alterations caused by global warming, thereby providing a scientific basis for formulating policies aimed at mitigating and adapting to climate change. The accurate prediction of NEP sheds light on the ecosystem’s response to climatic variations and aids in formulating targeted carbon sequestration policies. While traditional ecological process models provide a comprehensive approach to predicting NEP, they often require extensive experimental and empirical data, increasing research costs. In contrast, machine-learning models offer a cost-effective alternative for NEP prediction; however, the delicate balance in algorithm selection and hyperparameter tuning is frequently overlooked. In our quest for the optimal prediction model, we examined a combination of four mainstream machine-learning algorithms with four hyperparameter-optimization techniques. Our analysis identified that the backpropagation neural network combined with Bayesian optimization yielded the best performance, with an R2 of 0.68 and an MSE of 1.43. Additionally, deep-learning models showcased promising potential in NEP prediction. Selecting appropriate algorithms and executing precise hyperparameter-optimization strategies are crucial for enhancing the accuracy of NEP predictions. This approach not only improves model performance but also provides us with new tools for a deeper understanding of and response to ecosystem changes induced by climate change.