Uncertainty Analysis and Data Fusion of Multi-Source Land Evapotranspiration Products Based on the TCH Method

Abstract

Evapotranspiration (ET) is a very important variable in the global water cycle, carbon cycle, and energy cycle. However, there are still some uncertainties in existing ET products. Therefore, this paper evaluates the uncertainty of three widely used global ET products (ERA5-Land, GLDAS-Noah, and MERRA-2) based on the three-cornered hat (TCH) method, and generates a new ET product based on this. The new product is a long-series global monthly ET dataset with a spatial resolution of 0.25° × 0.25° and a time span of 21 years. The results show that ERA5-Land (8.46 mm/month) has the lowest uncertainty among the three ET products, followed by GLDAS-Noah (8.81 mm/month) and MERRA-2 (11.78 mm/month). The new product (TCH) captures ET trends in different regions as well as validating against in situ flux observations, and it exhibits better performance than the re-analysis dataset (ERA5-Land) in vegetation classifications such as evergreen needle-leaf forest, grassland, open shrubland, savanna, and woody savanna. The linear trend analysis of the new product shows a significant decreasing trend in south-eastern South America and southwestern parts of Africa, and an increasing trend in almost all other regions, including eastern North America, north-eastern South America, western Europe, north-central Africa, southern Asia, and south-eastern Oceania.