Climate Change Attribution in the Lena and Selenga River Runoff: An Evaluation Based on the Earth System and Regional Hydrological Models

Abstract

The main goal of this study was to obtain the attribution results of a physical assessment of the modern hydrological consequences of separately natural and anthropogenic components of climate change, based on the synthesis of detailed process-based models of river runoff formation and an ensemble of Earth system models (ESMs) within the large river basins in Eastern Siberia. This approach allows calculating the river flow using ESM-based data over the observation period under two scenarios, considering: (1) the anthropogenic impact of increasing greenhouse gas emissions and (2) only internal fluctuations of the climate system and natural external forcing. According to the results of the numerical experiments, the attributions of anthropogenic components of climate change in the dynamics of the Lena runoff are weak, i.e., during the observation period, the Lena River flow statistically significantly increases, but it occurs mainly due to natural climate variability. The changes in the Selenga runoff are intensely influenced by the anthropogenic component of climate change. Since the 1970s, the Selenga runoff increased under natural climatic conditions, but since the mid-1980s, it decreased under anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, due to reduced summer precipitation. This was the main reason for the last low-water period of 1996–2017 in the Selenga basin.