The Universal Theory for Multiscale Modelling of Infectious Disease Dynamics

Abstract

The replication-transmission relativity theory, currently used to inform the development of multiscale models of infectious disease dynamics, needs a revision and extension to accommodate new basic science and clinical information about infectious disease dynamics. In this article, we revise and extend the replication-transmission relativity theory into a new scientific theory of infectious disease dynamics called the universal theory for the multiscale modelling of infectious disease dynamics. This new theory states that, for every host–pathogen interaction that results in an infectious disease system, there is no privileged or absolute scale of a disease system form that would determine the dynamics of the infectious disease system, only interactions between the scales of a level of organisation of the pathogen-centred disease system form and the scales of the corresponding levels of organisation of the host-centred disease system form. We further explain the utility of this theory, which is reflected in its flexibility and ability to incorporate new information and explain previous information that could not be accounted for by the replication-transmission relativity theory of infectious disease dynamics.