Impact of Vaccine and Immunity Passports in the Context of COVID-19: A Time Series Analysis in Overseas France

Abstract

(1) Background: By summer 2021, overseas France turned COVID-19 vaccine and immunity certificates into passports to open travel bubbles. Subsequently, its territories set French records for both COVID-19 and 6-month excess all-cause mortality. (2) Methods: Official time series were collected to compare time correlations between air traffic and COVID-19 transmission and mortality in overseas France, before and after the implementation of immunity passports. (3) Results: Air traffic initially had a reversed relationship with COVID-19, which transitioned into a leader–follower relationship with the introduction of immunity passports. Essentially, air traffic increased 16 days before COVID-19 cases increased (r = 0.61) and 26 days before deaths increased (r = 0.31) in Martinique, 26 days (r = 0.72) and 40 days (r = 0.82) before in Guadeloupe, and 29 days (r = 0.60) and 31 days (r = 0.41) before in Réunion upon introduction of immunity passports. Moreover, air traffic became as correlated as community transmission to COVID-19 mortality in Guadeloupe. (4) Conclusions: Since the introduction of immunity passports, air traffic has been pacesetting COVID-19 within one month for transmission, and within an additional two weeks for mortality in overseas France. Responding to WHO’s call for real-world evidence, this study suggests that COVID-19 passports are not commensurate with health system goals.