The Global Demand and Supply Balance of the Human Papillomavirus Vaccine: Implications for the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer

Author:

Malvolti Stefano1ORCID,Soble Adam1,Bloem Paul2,LaMontagne D Scott3,Aggarwal Rakesh4ORCID,Pitisuttithum Punnee5ORCID,Rees Helen6,Cernuschi Tania2

Affiliation:

1. MMGH Consulting GmbH, 8049 Zurich, Switzerland

2. Department of Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals, World Health Organization, 1202 Geneva, Switzerland

3. John Snow, Inc. (JSI), Arlington, VA 22202, USA

4. Jawaharlal Institute of Postgraduate Medical Education and Research, Puducherry 605006, India

5. Faculty of Tropical Medicine, Mahidol University, Bangkok 10400, Thailand

6. Wits RHI, University of Witwatersrand, Johannesburg 2001, South Africa

Abstract

As of November 2023, 140 World Health Organization (WHO) member states had introduced human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination in their routine immunization schedules. Despite a continuously increasing demand from countries across all income groups, supply constraints, COVID-19 pandemic disruptions, and other factors have slowed the pace of introduction, particularly in low-resource settings. Using a population-based forecasting methodology and leveraging the WHO’s yearly vaccine supply data collection, we updated global demand and supply projections for the HPV vaccine for the period of 2022–2031. The analysis aimed at clarifying the magnitude of the challenges to bringing in equitable access to HPV vaccines, which can hinder the achievement of the Global Strategy for the Elimination of Cervical Cancer. The results of this analysis show that the risk of HPV shortages has significantly decreased, and global supply is now, under normal circumstances, sufficient to meet global demand. In the long term, HPV supply will be more than sufficient to meet the Global Strategy’s goal of 90% of girls fully vaccinated with the HPV vaccine by the age of 15 years. Nonetheless, paying attention to the formulation of policies and carefully managing demand and supply will be required to ensure the long-term sustainability of the HPV vaccine program.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Pharmacology (medical),Infectious Diseases,Drug Discovery,Pharmacology,Immunology

Reference20 articles.

1. Natural history and epidemiology of HPV infection and cervical cancer;Gynecol. Oncol.,2008

2. Approaching a decade since HPV vaccine licensure: Racial and gender disparities in knowledge and awareness of HPV and HPV vaccine;Boakye;Hum. Vaccines Immunother.,2017

3. World Health Organization (2017). Human papillomavirus vaccines: WHO position paper, May 2017. Wkly. Epidemiol. Rec., 19, 241–268.

4. World Health Organization (2023, November 20). Global Strategy to Accelerate the Elimination of Cervical Cancer as a Public Health Problem. Available online: https://www.who.int/publications/i/item/9789240014107.

5. World Health Organization (2016). Meeting of the Strategic Advisory Group of Experts on immunization, October 2014—Conclusions and recommendations. Wkly. Epidemiol. Rec., 89, 561–576.

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