Percentages of Vaccination Coverage Required to Establish Herd Immunity against SARS-CoV-2

Abstract

The pandemic associated with SARS-CoV-2 is a worldwide public health challenge. The WHO has proposed to achieve 70% COVID-19 vaccination coverage in all countries by mid-2022. Nevertheless, the prevention strategy based on COVID-19 vaccination and other applied prevention measures has not been sufficient to prevent SARS-CoV-2 epidemic waves. This study assessed the vaccination coverage that would be required to establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2, taking into account virus transmissibility (Ro values from 1.1 to 10) and COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness. The study found that high percentages of vaccination coverage and high levels of vaccination effectiveness are necessary to block the transmission of Omicron and other SARS-CoV-2 variants with greater infectious capacity. COVID-19 vaccination programs could establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2, with Ro values ranging from 3 to 10 and levels of COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness of 70–100%. Factors reducing COVID-19 vaccination effectiveness (emergent variants, infections among vaccinated individuals, high risk individuals) and factors increasing SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility (close settings) increased the percentages of vaccination coverage that would be required to establish herd immunity. Two measures should be implemented to establish herd immunity against SARS-CoV-2: (1) achieve ≥ 90% COVID-19 vaccination coverage in all countries worldwide, and (2) increase the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines in preventing Omicron infection to at least 88%.