Potential Cost-Effectiveness of Maternal Influenza Immunisation in Low-Income Countries: An Explorative Modelling Study and Value of Information Analysis to Guide Future Clinical Research

Abstract

Maternal influenza immunisation (MII) is recommended for protecting pregnant women and infants under six months of age from severe disease related to influenza. However, few low-income countries have introduced this vaccine. Existing cost-effectiveness studies do not consider potential vaccine non-specific effects (NSE) observed in some settings, such as reductions in preterm birth. A decision tree model was built to examine the potential cost-effectiveness of MII in a hypothetical low-income country compared to no vaccination, considering possible values for NSE on preterm birth in addition to vaccine-specific effects on influenza. We synthesized epidemiological and cost data from low-income countries. All costs were adjusted to 2021 United States dollars (USD). We considered cost-effectiveness thresholds that reflect opportunity costs (USD 188 per disability-adjusted life year averted; range: USD 28–538). Results suggest that even a small (5%) NSE on preterm birth may make MII a cost-effective strategy in these settings. A value of information analysis indicated that acquiring more information on the presence and possible size of NSE of MII could greatly reduce the uncertainty in decision-making on MII. Further clinical research investigating NSE in low-income countries may be of high value to optimise immunisation policy.