Mathematical Modeling of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths and the Impact of Vaccinations during Three Years of the Pandemic in Peru

Author:

Marín-Machuca Olegario1,Chacón Ruy D.2ORCID,Alvarez-Lovera Natalia3ORCID,Pesantes-Grados Pedro4ORCID,Pérez-Timaná Luis3,Marín-Sánchez Obert5ORCID

Affiliation:

1. Departamento Académico de Ciencias Alimentarias, Facultad de Oceanografía, Pesquería, Ciencias Alimentarias y Acuicultura, Universidad Nacional Federico Villarreal, Calle Roma 350, Miraflores 15074, Peru

2. Department of Pathology, School of Veterinary Medicine, University of São Paulo, Av. Prof. Orlando M. Paiva, 87, São Paulo 05508-270, Brazil

3. Escuela Profesional de Genética y Biotecnología, Facultad de Ciencias Biológicas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germán Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru

4. Unidad de Posgrado, Facultad de Ciencias Matemáticas, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germán Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru

5. Departamento Académico de Microbiología Médica, Facultad de Medicina, Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos, Av. Carlos Germán Amezaga 375, Lima 15081, Peru

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused widespread infections, deaths, and substantial economic losses. Vaccine development efforts have led to authorized candidates reducing hospitalizations and mortality, although variant emergence remains a concern. Peru faced a significant impact due to healthcare deficiencies. This study employed logistic regression to mathematically model COVID-19’s dynamics in Peru over three years and assessed the correlations between cases, deaths, and people vaccinated. We estimated the critical time (tc) for cases (627 days), deaths (389 days), and people vaccinated (268 days), which led to the maximum speed values on those days. Negative correlations were identified between people vaccinated and cases (−0.40) and between people vaccinated and deaths (−0.75), suggesting reciprocal relationships between those pairs of variables. In addition, Granger causality tests determined that the vaccinated population dynamics can be used to forecast the behavior of deaths (p-value < 0.05), evidencing the impact of vaccinations against COVID-19. Also, the coefficient of determination (R2) indicated a robust representation of the real data. Using the Peruvian context as an example case, the logistic model’s projections of cases, deaths, and vaccinations provide crucial insights into the pandemic, guiding public health tactics and reaffirming the essential role of vaccinations and resource distribution for an effective fight against COVID-19.

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Pharmacology (medical),Infectious Diseases,Drug Discovery,Pharmacology,Immunology

Reference56 articles.

1. A Novel Coronavirus from Patients with Pneumonia in China, 2019;Zhu;N. Engl. J. Med.,2020

2. Characteristics of and Important Lessons from the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreak in China: Summary of a Report of 72314 Cases From the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention;Wu;JAMA,2020

3. (2023, March 20). WHO Coronavirus (COVID-19) Dashboard. Available online: https://covid19.who.int/.

4. COVID-19 and Its Global Economic Impact;Kolahchi;Adv. Exp. Med. Biol.,2021

5. The Evolution of SARS-CoV-2;Markov;Nat. Rev. Microbiol.,2023

Cited by 2 articles. 订阅此论文施引文献 订阅此论文施引文献,注册后可以免费订阅5篇论文的施引文献,订阅后可以查看论文全部施引文献

同舟云学术

1.学者识别学者识别

2.学术分析学术分析

3.人才评估人才评估

"同舟云学术"是以全球学者为主线,采集、加工和组织学术论文而形成的新型学术文献查询和分析系统,可以对全球学者进行文献检索和人才价值评估。用户可以通过关注某些学科领域的顶尖人物而持续追踪该领域的学科进展和研究前沿。经过近期的数据扩容,当前同舟云学术共收录了国内外主流学术期刊6万余种,收集的期刊论文及会议论文总量共计约1.5亿篇,并以每天添加12000余篇中外论文的速度递增。我们也可以为用户提供个性化、定制化的学者数据。欢迎来电咨询!咨询电话:010-8811{复制后删除}0370

www.globalauthorid.com

TOP

Copyright © 2019-2024 北京同舟云网络信息技术有限公司
京公网安备11010802033243号  京ICP备18003416号-3