Going Forward: Potential Impact of Protein-Based COVID-19 Vaccination Coverage on Population Outcomes and Costs in the United States

Author:

Paret Kyle1,Beyhaghi Hadi2,Herring William L.13ORCID,Mauskopf Josephine1,Shane Lesley G.2ORCID,Rousculp Matthew D.2ORCID

Affiliation:

1. RTI Health Solutions, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709, USA

2. Novavax, Inc., Gaithersburg, MD 20878, USA

3. Karolinska Institute, 17177 Stockholm, Sweden

Abstract

Policymakers in the United States (US) recommend coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccination with a monovalent 2023–2024 vaccine formulation based on the Omicron XBB.1.5 variant. We estimated the potential US population-level health and economic impacts of increased COVID-19 vaccine coverage that might be expected with the availability of a protein-based vaccine with simpler storage requirements in addition to messenger ribonucleic acid (mRNA) vaccines. A Markov model was developed to estimate 1-year COVID-19-related costs, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths with and without the availability of a protein-based vaccine option. The model population was stratified by age and risk status. Model inputs were sourced from published literature or derived from publicly available data. Our model estimated that a five-percentage-point increase in coverage due to the availability of a protein-based vaccine option would prevent over 500,000 cases, 66,000 hospitalizations, and 3000 COVID-19-related deaths. These clinical outcomes translated to 42,000 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained and an incremental cost–effectiveness ratio of USD 16,141/QALY from a third-party payer perspective. In sensitivity analyses, outcomes were most sensitive to COVID-19 incidence and severity across age groups. The availability of a protein-based vaccine option in the US could reduce hospitalizations and deaths and is predicted to be cost-effective.

Funder

Novavax

Publisher

MDPI AG

Subject

Pharmacology (medical),Infectious Diseases,Drug Discovery,Pharmacology,Immunology

Reference55 articles.

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2. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2023, October 06). End of the Federal COVID-19 Public Health Emergency (PHE) Declaration, Available online: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/your-health/end-of-phe.html.

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