Predictors of Breakthrough SARS-CoV-2 Infection after Vaccination

Abstract

The initial two-dose vaccine series and subsequent booster vaccine doses have been effective in modulating SARS-CoV-2 disease severity and death but do not completely prevent infection. The correlates of infection despite vaccination continue to be under investigation. In this prospective decentralized study (n = 1286) comparing antibody responses in an older- (≥70 years) to a younger-aged cohort (aged 30–50 years), we explored the correlates of breakthrough infection in 983 eligible subjects. Participants self-reported data on initial vaccine series, subsequent booster doses and COVID-19 infections in an online portal and provided self-collected dried blood spots for antibody testing by ELISA. Multivariable survival analysis explored the correlates of breakthrough infection. An association between higher antibody levels and protection from breakthrough infection observed during the Delta and Omicron BA.1/2 waves of infection no longer existed during the Omicron BA.4/5 wave. The older-aged cohort was less likely to have a breakthrough infection at all time-points. Receipt of an original/Omicron vaccine and the presence of hybrid immunity were associated with protection of infection during the later Omicron BA.4/5 and XBB waves. We were unable to determine a threshold antibody to define protection from infection or to guide vaccine booster schedules.