Export Potential Analysis of Vietnamese Bottled Coconut Water by Incorporating Criteria Weights of MCDM into the Gravity of Trade Model

Abstract

Vietnam, an emerging economy, leads the Southeast Asian region in terms of the growth rate of coconut production; yet, its sustainability is questionable because Vietnam lacks a credible strategy to reap the benefits of its export potential. While the literature is rich with studies on coconut-related export competitiveness and readiness, it seems that studies focused on a single set of factors, and very few studies take Vietnam as a case study for analysis. Studies we found use aggregate data for econometric analysis. On the contrary, this study attempts to address the literature’s gaps by proposing a comprehensive view of key factors identifying the export potential of bottled coconut water. It also adds to our comprehension of how large- and small-scale manufacturers prioritize factors differently. To answer the research questions, we collect qualitative and quantitative data for analysis. We use AHP and M-CRITIC-RP methods for ranking the factors. This study also incorporates the criteria weights into the gravity of the trade model to identify export potential to target markets. Our findings can draw researchers’ and policymakers’ attention to the importance of considering how firms and manufacturers prioritize key factors in export readiness, and thereby impact export potential and target markets.