Estimation at Completion Simulation Using the Potential of Soft Computing Models: Case Study of Construction Engineering Projects

Abstract

“Estimation at completion” (EAC) is a manager's projection of a project's total cost at its completion. It is an important tool for monitoring a project's performance and risk. Executives usually make high-level decisions on a project, but they may have gaps in the technical knowledge which may cause errors in their decisions. In this current study, the authors implemented new coupled intelligence models, namely global harmony search (GHS) and brute force (BF) integrated with extreme learning machine (ELM) for modeling the project construction estimation at completion. GHS and BF were used to abstract the substantial influential attributes toward the EAC dependent variable, whereas the effectiveness of ELM as a novel predictive model for the investigated application was demonstrated. As a benchmark model, a classical artificial neural network (ANN) was developed to validate the new ELM model in terms of the prediction accuracy. The predictive models were applied using historical information related to construction projects gathered from the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The study investigated the application of the proposed coupled model in determining the EAC and calculated the tendency of a change in the forecast model monitor. The main goal of the investigated model was to produce a reliable trend of EAC estimates which can aid project managers in improving the effectiveness of project costs control. The results demonstrated a noticeable implementation of the GHS-ELM and BF-ELM over the classical and hybridized ANN models.