Analyzing the Impact of Variability and Uncertainty on Power System Flexibility

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of variability and uncertainty on the flexibility of a power system. The variability and uncertainty make it harder to maintain the balance between load and generation. However, most existing studies on flexibility evaluation have not distinguished between the effects of variability and uncertainty. The countermeasures to address variability and uncertainty differ; thus, applying strategies individually tailored to variability and uncertainty is helpful for more efficient operation and planning of a power system. The first contribution of this study is in separating the variability and uncertainty, and determining which is more influential in terms of flexibility in specific system situations. A flexibility index, named the ramping capability shortage probability (RSP), is used to quantify the extent to which the variability and uncertainty affect the flexibility. The second contribution is to generate various scenarios for variability and uncertainty based on a modified IEEE-RTS-96, to evaluate the flexibility. The penetration level of renewable energy resources is kept the same in each scenario. The results of a sensitivity analysis show that variability is more effective than uncertainty for high and medium net loads.