Quantitative Impacts of Climate Change and Human Activities on Grassland Productivity in Otog Banner, China from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

The responses of grassland net primary productivity (NPP) to climate change (CC) and human activities (HA) have received much attention and are inconsistent on different spatial scales. The accurate and quantitative evaluation of the impacts of CC and HA on grassland NPP at a county scale is very important to reveal the external driving factors on grassland NPP and guide the protection of the grassland ecosystem in the arid sandy area of China. In this study, the improved CASA model was adopted to quantify the grassland NPP in Otog Banner, China from 2001 to 2020. The spatiotemporal dynamics of grassland NPP and the relationships between grassland NPP and climate factors in space were analyzed using the methods of simple linear regression and relative sensitivity coefficient. Furthermore, the relative contributions to grassland NPP dynamics caused by CC and HA were explored using the quantitative method based on partial derivative. The results revealed that the mean value of grassland NPP was 175.17 g C m−2 yr−1, and exhibited a significant decrease trend periodically at a rate of 2.14 g C m−2 yr−1 from 2001 to 2020. The spatial distribution of grassland NPP increased from west to east gradually and ranged in 17.48–498.09 g C m−2 yr−1. Grassland NPP exhibited significant linear patterns along the gradients of climate factors, and was the most sensitive to sunshine duration (SSD). Approximately 86.83% of the grassland showed a degradation trend and 39.71% showed a serious degradation trend. The CC contribution to grassland NPP dynamics was 0.593 g C m−2 yr−1, and precipitation was the key driving climate factor, while the contribution of HA was −2.733 g C m−2 yr−1, which was the primary factor leading to large-scale degradation of grassland in Otog banner. This study indicates that the status of the grassland ecosystem in Otog Banner is not optimistic, and measures for grassland ecosystem restoration and improvement need to be further strengthened.