Prediction of Thrips Damage Distribution in Mango Orchards Using a Novel Maximum Likelihood Classifier

Abstract

Thrips constitute the primary pest responsible for reducing mango yield and quality every year in Asia. Therefore, the efficient monitoring of thrips damage across mango orchards on a large scale to aid farmers in devising rational pesticide application strategies poses a significant challenge within the current mango industry. This study designs a mango thrips damage inversion prediction method based on the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC). Initially, drone multispectral remote sensing technology is utilized to acquire multispectral data from mango orchards, which are then combined with ground hyperspectral information to identify sensitive bands indicative of mango leaf damage caused by thrips. Subsequently, correlation analysis is conducted on various vegetation indices, leading to the selection of the Greenness Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (GNDVI), which exhibits a strong correlation coefficient of 0.82, as the spectral characteristic parameter for the inversion prediction model. The construction of a remote sensing prediction model for thrips damage distribution in mango orchards is then undertaken based on the MLC. Acknowledging the bias-variance trade-off inherent in the MLC when processing spectral data and its potential limitations in feature extraction and robustness, this study proposes a modification wherein neighboring pixels are weighted differently to enhance the model’s feature extraction capabilities. Experimental results show that the novel MLC maintains stable estimation levels across various numbers of domain pixels, achieving an inversion accuracy of 91.23%. Through the reconstruction of the pixel matrix, the damage distribution of thrips in mango orchards can be swiftly and comprehensively visualized over extensive areas.