A Predictive Study of the Redistribution of Some Bread Wheat Genotypes in Response to Climate Change in Egypt

Abstract

Climate change and global warming have become the most significant challenges to the agricultural production worldwide, especially in arid and semiarid areas. The main purpose of plant breeding programs now is to produce a genetically wide range of genotypes that can withstand the adverse effects of climate change. Moreover, farmers have to reallocate their cultivars due to their ability to tolerate unfavorable conditions. During this study, two field experiments and climate analysis based on 150 years of data are conducted to reallocate some genotypes of bread wheat in respect to climate change based on their performance under drought stress conditions. Climatic data indicate that there is an increase in temperature over all Egyptian sites coupled with some changes in rain amount. Among the tested cultivars, cultivar Giza 160 was the perfect one, while cultivar Masr 03 was the weakest one. Susceptibility indices are a good tool for discovering the superior genotypes under unfavorable conditions and, interestingly, some of the cultivars with high performance were among the superior cultivars in more than one of the tested traits in this study. Finally, combining the climatic data and the experimental data, we can conclude that cultivars Giza 160 and Sakha 94 are suitable for growning in zones with harsh environments, such as the eastern desert and southern Egypt, while cultivars Gemmeza 11, Sahel 01, Sakha 98, Sids 12, and Sakha 93 are suitable for growning in zones with good growing conditions, such as the Nile Delta region and northern Egypt.