Energy Crisis—Alternative Use of Winter Bread Wheat Grain Depending on Protein Content

Abstract

Our economic analysis aimed to evaluate the profitability of winter bread wheat production based on two fundamental aspects. The first was the grainprotein content as a criterion for determining grain prices. The other was a comparative simulation of production profitability relying on grain production costs in 2015 and 2022. We used the results of a field experiment conducted in 2014 and 2015 involving winter bread wheat fertilised with nitrogen applied at progressive increments of 40 kg N ha−1 within arange from 0 to 240 N ha−1 with or without fungicide protection. We assumed that experimental factors significantly affected both the yield and the market value of grain, and hence the profitability conditioned by wheat prices on global markets. The working hypothesis of this paper is: wheat production profitability has not changed in the face of a global energy crisis. Our analysis shows that growing bread wheat generates profit when inputs are high: these inputs include high nitrogen rates and full crop protection. The real grain selling price guarantees production profitability. We should consider that, in the circumstances of a global energy crisis, the world should possibly switch to baking products from low-protein flour. Only upon such an assumption can the expenditure on fertilisers and fungicides be significantly reduced.