Adaptation to Climate Change Effects by Cultivar and Sowing Date Selection for Maize in the Northeast China Plain

Abstract

Cultivar and sowing date selection are major factors in determining the yield potential of any crop and in any region. To explore how climate change affects these choices, this study performed a regional scale analysis using the well-validated APSIM-maize model for the Northeast China Plain (NEC) which is the leading maize (Zea mays L.) producing area in China. Results indicated that high temperature had a significantly negative effect on grain yield, while effective accumulated temperature and solar radiation had significant positive effects on grain yield and kernel number. Cloudy and rainy weather in flowering stage had significant negative effects on kernel number. Delayed sowing led to less cloudy and rainy weather during flowering and reduced the negative effect on kernel number. Higher diurnal thermal range and less precipitation during the grain-filling stage also increased the 1000-kernel weight. Delayed sowing, however, also significantly increased the risk of early senescence and frost (>80%) in middle and high latitude areas. In the middle and high latitude areas of the NEC, the grain yield of a long-season cultivar (LS) under early sowing (I) (6.2–19.9%) was significantly higher than under medium sowing (II) or late sowing (III), and higher than that of an early sown (I) short-season (SS) and medium-season cultivar (MS). In the low latitude area of the NEC, the grain yield of MS under medium sowing date (II) was higher than that under I and III, meanwhile, this was also higher than that of SS and LS. Therefore, under climate warming, LS sown earlier in high and medium latitudes and MS sown medium in low latitude were the appropriate cultivar and sowing date choices, which could mitigate the stress of high temperatures and reduce the risk of early senescence and frost. Cultivar and sowing date selection are effective measures to alleviate negative effects of climate change on maize production in the NEC, and provides valuable advice for breeders on cultivar selection, and the choice of varieties and sowing dates for farmers in actual production.