Evaluation of the Coupled Coordination of the Water–Energy–Food–Ecology System Based on the Sustainable Development Goals in the Upper Han River of China

Abstract

Water, energy, food, and ecology are essential for achieving sustainable development in a region, and in order to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals, their security is also essential at a river basin scale. This study investigated the interrelationships among the water system, food system, energy system, and ecosystem in China’s Upper Han River, in alignment with Goals 2, 6, 7, and 15 of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). To evaluate the achievement of the SDGs in the Upper Han River, this water–energy–food–ecology system was evaluated by a thorough evaluation index system according to Goals 2, 6, 7, and 15, and the weights of the indices were given using a combination of the CRITIC weighting method and entropy approach. The level of coupling coordination of the system from 2000 to 2021 was quantitatively evaluated by using a coupling coordination degree model. The autoregressive integrated moving average model was built to forecast the process of the indices from 2022 to 2041, and the predicted processes of the system were evaluated by the coupling coordination degree model. The degree of coupling coordination improved from 0.396 to 0.845, and the comprehensive assessment development index increased by 113% from 2000 to 2021, demonstrating that it was a stable development period in general. The fragile support capacity of the water system for the energy system, food system, and ecosystem had a great impact on the overall comprehensive evaluation index. SDG2 (food system), SDG6 (water system), SDG7 (energy system), and SDG15 (ecosystem) all have higher levels of internal conflict. These bi-directional dynamics tended to converge in the sufficiency development mode in the future period as well as the historical period. The analysis of the relationship showed that there were inherent connections and interactions between the four goals, as presented by the high level of coupling that persisted between SDG2, SDG6, SDG7, and SDG15. In the process of promoting the achievement of these goals, the coupling degree also tends to be coordinated from 2022 to 2041. The results offer a view for the river basin’s sustainable development and management.