Dryland Winter Wheat Production and Its Relationship to Fine-Scale Soil Carbon Heterogeneity—A Case Study in the US Central High Plains

Abstract

Soil carbon plays a key role in maintaining soil quality, but its direct impact on crop yields depends on the interplay of different factors. This study aims to study fine–spatial variation soil properties and their effect on grain productivity in fallow–wheat cropping systems in the US central High Plains. We evaluate wheat yields in relation to soil macro and micronutrients, total C (TC), and texture as well as subtle variations in field elevation. To document soil–yield relationships at a fine spatial scale, soil sampling (0–15 and 15–30 cm depths) was conducted using a regular 30 m grid spacing in eleven adjacent fields. Interpolated yield maps indicated that the availability of key nutrients and textures contributed to the spatial distribution of wheat productivity. Random forest (RF) showed that these soil attributes were able to explain slightly under 30% of the spatial variation in crop yields. Our findings demonstrate that TC can often serve as a reliable proxy for delineating yield-based management zones, even in inherently low C soils. In addition, Fe, Zn, SO4-S, sand, and subtle topographic changes were also critical factors affecting wheat yield. Our results highlight that developing management zones in these soils relying exclusively on soil information is not straightforward. However, the high level of within-field spatial variability observed needs to be addressed.