Sensitivity Analysis of Plant- and Cultivar-Specific Parameters of APSIM-Sugar Model: Variation between Climates and Management Conditions

Abstract

With increasing demand for food and energy, there is a great need for improving sugarcane productivity. New cultivars and management strategies can be assessed using process-based crop models. Information on cultivars needs to be updated frequently, but it is still limited in most crop models. Therefore, it is important to identify possible candidates for varietal parameterization and calibration. Because sensitivity analysis is computationally expensive, we used a less expensive emulator-based approach to conduct a global sensitivity analysis using the apsimr package and GEM-SA software. We studied the sensitivity of four yield outputs of the APSIM-Sugar model to 13 parameters in rainfed and irrigated conditions in Japan and Sri Lanka. Unlike previous studies, our aim was to give comprehensive insights into the variation in sensitivity due to variation in climate. The results confirmed distinct variation of parameter influence between climates and between management conditions. We identify possible candidates for parameterization and calibration of new cultivars for APSIM-Sugar under different environments, and show the effect of variation in climate on variation in parameter influence under different management conditions. It was confirmed that both radiation use efficiency and transpiration efficiency were sensitive and have to be examined to use new cultivars, though these are not listed as cultivar parameters.