Plant Phenology Simulation and Trigger Threshold Based on Total Climatic Production Factors—A Case Study of Stipa krylovii Phenology

Abstract

In response to the new concept of the impact of total climate production factors on plant phenology, this study verifies the feasibility of simulating plant phenology and triggering thresholds based on total climatic production factors by using the phenological and meteorological observation data of S. krylovii plants from 1985 to 2018 at the Xilinhot National Climate Observatory of China Meteorological Administration. The results indicate that the total climate production factors have a significant impact on plant phenological changes and can be effectively utilized for simulating phenology and determining triggering thresholds. The mutation of cumulative climate production potential based on total climate production factors can effectively indicate the green-up date and the wilting date of S. krylovii plants, and their triggering thresholds depend on the parameters of climate resource changes and the characteristics of plant biology, which are (0.085, −5.363) and (0.086, −27.620), respectively. The cumulative climate production potential based on total climate production factors can effectively indicate the heading date of S. krylovii plants, and its triggering thresholds also depend on the parameters of climate resource changes and the characteristics of plant biology, which is (394.632, −38,026.268). Furthermore, the results support the viewpoint that abrupt changes to the climate determine the beginning and ending of plant growth, while the accumulative climate resources determine the other phenological dates. This study provides new ideas for the study of plant phenology.