Soil Water and Nitrogen Fluxes in Response to Climate Change in a Wheat–Maize Double Cropping System

Abstract

The impact of soil nutrient depletion on crop production is a thoroughly researched issue; however, robust assessments on the impact of climate change on water and N fluxes in agroecosystem are lacking. The complexity of soil water and N fluxes in response to climate change under agroecosystems makes simulation-based approaches to this issue appealing. This study evaluated the responses of crop yield, soil water, and N fluxes of a wheat–maize rotation to two Representative Concentration Pathways climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) at Tai’an, a representative site on the North China Plain (NCP). Results showed that the mean air temperature and accumulated precipitation for both winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) and summer maize (Zea mays L.) growing seasons changed in both magnitude and pattern under various climate scenarios. The temperature increases shortened the growth periods of these two crops by more than 13 days and decrease summer maize yields (P < 0.05). These results are illustrated by lower yield results associated with RCP4.5 (20.5%) and RCP8.5 (19.3%) climate scenarios, respectively. During the winter wheat growing season, water drainage examined in the climate scenarios was significantly higher (more than double) than the baseline, and there was no significant change to nitrate leaching and denitrification. In the summer maize growing season, with continuously rising temperatures, the ranking for evaporation was in the order baseline < RCP4.5 < RCP8.5, however, the opposite ranking applied for transpiration and evapotranspiration. The increase in water drainage was 1.4 times higher than the baseline, whereas the nitrate leaching in soil significantly decreased. Our simulation results provide an opportunity to improve the understanding of soil water and N fluxes in agroecosystems, which can lead to deficient or excess N under future climate conditions.