Analysis and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Korgalzhyn District, Kazakhstan-Reference-Cited by-同舟云学术

Analysis and Prediction of Land Use/Land Cover Changes in Korgalzhyn District, Kazakhstan

Published:2024-01-25 Issue:2 Volume:14 Page:268
ISSN:2073-4395
Container-title:Agronomy
language:en
Short-container-title:Agronomy

Author:

Alipbeki Onggarbek¹^ORCID,Alipbekova Chaimgul²,Mussaif Gauhar³,Grossul Pavel³,Zhenshan Darima⁴,Muzyka Olesya⁵,Turekeldiyeva Rimma⁶,Yelubayev Dastan⁷,Rakhimov Daniyar²,Kupidura Przemysław⁸^ORCID,Aliken Eerassyl¹

Affiliation:

1. Department of Geodesy and Geoinformatics, Al-Faraby Kazakh National University, Farabi Avenue 71, Almaty 050040, Kazakhstan

2. Department of Biology, Plant Protection and Quarantine, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

3. Department of Geodesy and Cartography, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

4. Department of Management and Marketing, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

5. Department of Cadastre, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

6. Department of Ecology, M.H.Dulaty Taraz Regional University, Taraz 160000, Kazakhstan

7. Department of Computer Sciences, S. Seifullin Kazakh Agrotechnical Research University, Astana 001011, Kazakhstan

8. Faculty of Geodesy and Cartography, Warsaw University of Technology, 00-661 Warsaw, Poland

Abstract

Changes occurring because of human activity in protected natural places require constant monitoring of land use (LU) structures. Therefore, Korgalzhyn District, which occupies part of the Korgalzhyn State Natural Reserve territory, is of considerable interest. The aim of these studies was to analyze changes in the composition of the land use/land cover (LULC) of Korgalzhyn District from 2010 to 2021 and predict LU transformation by 2030 and 2050. Landsat image classification was performed using Random Forest on the Google Earth Engine. The combined CA-ANN model was used to predict LULC changes by 2030 and 2050, and studies were carried out using the MOLUSCE plugin. The results of these studies showed that from 2010 to 2021, there was a steady increase in the share of ploughable land and an adequate reduction in grassland. It is established that, in 2030 and 2050, this trend will continue. At the same time, there will be no drastic changes in the composition of other land classes. The obtained results can be helpful for the development of land management plans and development policies for the Korgalzhyn District.

Funder

Ministry of Agriculture of the Republic of Kazakhstan

Publisher

MDPI AG

Link

https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4395/14/2/268/pdf

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