Evaluating Future Streamflow Patterns under SSP245 Scenarios: Insights from CMIP6

Abstract

The potential impacts of climate change on water resources in the Upper Indus Basin of Pakistan, a region heavily reliant on these resources for irrigated agriculture. We employ state-of-the-art global climate models from the CMIP6 project under the SSP245 scenario to evaluate changes in river runoff using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Our findings indicate that temperature fluctuations play a crucial role in streamflow dynamics, given that the primary sources of river runoff in the Upper Indus Basin are snow and glacier melting. We project a substantial increase of approximately 18% in both minimum and maximum temperatures, precipitation pattern increases of 13–17%, and a significant rise in streamflow by 19–30% in the future, driven by warmer temperatures. Importantly, our analysis reveals season-specific impacts of temperature, precipitation, and streamflow, with increasing variability in projected annual changes as we progress into the mid and late 21st century. To address these changes, our findings suggest the need for integrated strategies and action plans encompassing hydroelectricity generation, irrigation, flood prevention, and reservoir storage to ensure effective water resource management in the region.