A Study on the Impact of Environmental Factors on Chub Mackerel Scomber japonicus Fishing Grounds Based on a Linear Mixed Model

Abstract

Chub mackerel (Scomber japonicus) is a commercially important fish species which are widely distributed in the North Pacific. Based on the fishery data from China’s high-sea light-purse seine fishing from 2014 to 2020 and the marine environment factors, a mixed linear model considering the actual spatiotemporal stratification of the catch per unit effort (CPUE) was established to analyze the fixed and random effects of marine environmental factors on the CPUE of chub mackerel and to investigate the relationship between the abundance of chub mackerel resources in the Northwest Pacific and two marine environmental factors: sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a concentration (CHL). The results showed that SST had a significant fixed effect on the CPUE. In contrast, the natural logarithm of chlorophyll (logCHL) had no fixed effect on the CPUE. Based on the monthly analysis, random fluctuations were observed in the impact of logCHL on the CPUE. LogCHL and CPUE show a positive correlation during spawning and wintering periods and a negative correlation during the feeding period. The study showed that when fishery sampling data exhibit spatiotemporal stratification, linear mixed models can effectively incorporate both the fixed and random effects of environmental factors on the CPUE of chub mackerel. Linear mixed models can play an important role in analyzing the fluctuations in resource abundance and the mechanisms governing the formation of fishing grounds for chub mackerel in the Northwest Pacific.