Fuzzy AHP Integrated with GIS Analyses for Drought Risk Assessment: A Case Study from Upper Phetchaburi River Basin, Thailand

Abstract

This study aimed to analyse and assess desertification risks in the Upper Phetchaburi River Basin. Upstream areas are especially crucial for aquatic ecosystems since the mid- and downstream areas are continuously being utilized for agricultural and community purposes. Many parts of the basin have been at moderate risk of drought. The fuzzy analytical hierarchy process (FAHP) is an effective and widely accepted model used to identify complicated environmental problems and disasters and prioritize factors in environmental studies. This study emphasized on four main factors influencing drought: Climate, physical factors, soil and land utilization factors. Each factor contains ten sub-criteria to identify severity levels and specific issues. The major areas of the basin were facing different risk levels: moderate (21%), high (5.79%) and severe (0.07%). Precipitation and slope gradient were the main factors affecting drought risks. The problematic areas were agricultural areas located in midstream and downstream areas. Therefore, spatial mitigations and possible ways forward should focus on increasing moisture contents—to reduce soil erosion and enhance soil fertility—and create restrictions to ensure appropriate land use. The mitigations must take into account spatially critical factors and must also include an integrated plan for the entire basin area.