Effects of Temperature, Precipitation, and CO2 on Plant Phenology in China: A Circular Regression Approach

Abstract

Leveraging circular regression, this study analyzed phenological data from China spanning the period 2003 to 2015, meticulously examining the effects of temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentrations on the phenological patterns of woody and herbaceous plants. For woody plants, the results showed that rising temperatures and increased precipitation notably advanced early growth phases, such as budburst, leaf unfolding, and first flowering (p < 0.001). Specifically, CO2 concentrations had a pronounced impact on the leaf unfolding phase (p < 0.001). In contrast, autumnal events, particularly fruit maturity, autumn coloring, and leaf fall, were delayed by warmer temperatures and higher precipitation (p < 0.001), Of these events, only fruit maturity demonstrated sensitivity to CO2 concentration variations. In the realm of herbaceous plants, elevated temperatures and precipitation collectively hastened the budburst phase (p < 0.001), which is an effect further accentuated by high CO2 levels (p < 0.001). Moreover, rising temperatures and augmented precipitation were instrumental in advancing the flowering phase (p < 0.001). Conversely, warmer conditions slowed down the fruiting process (p < 0.001), with this delay somewhat mitigated by the effects of increased precipitation. Interestingly, while CO2 concentrations had negligible influence on the flowering and fruiting stages, they noticeably delayed seed dispersal and the initiation of senescence (p < 0.001). Overall, the prevailing trend suggests that plants, whether woody or herbaceous in nature, tend to prolong their growth season under warmer and more humid conditions. The influence of CO2 concentration, however, is contingent upon the specific phenological phase and plant type. Our findings emphasize the nuanced and stage-specific responses of plant phenology to temperature, precipitation, and CO2, highlighting the value of using circular regression in ecological studies.