Combining Phenylalanine and Leucine Levels Predicts 30-Day Mortality in Critically Ill Patients Better than Traditional Risk Factors with Multicenter Validation

Abstract

In critically ill patients, risk scores are used; however, they do not provide information for nutritional intervention. This study combined the levels of phenylalanine and leucine amino acids (PLA) to improve 30-day mortality prediction in intensive care unit (ICU) patients and to see whether PLA could help interpret the nutritional phases of critical illness. We recruited 676 patients with APACHE II scores ≥ 15 or intubated due to respiratory failure in ICUs, including 537 and 139 patients in the initiation and validation (multicenter) cohorts, respectively. In the initiation cohort, phenylalanine ≥ 88.5 μM (indicating metabolic disturbance) and leucine < 68.9 μM (indicating malnutrition) were associated with higher mortality rate. Based on different levels of phenylalanine and leucine, we developed PLA scores. In different models of multivariable analyses, PLA scores predicted 30-day mortality independent of traditional risk scores (p < 0.001). PLA scores were then classified into low, intermediate, high, and very-high risk categories with observed mortality rates of 9.0%, 23.8%, 45.6%, and 81.8%, respectively. These findings were validated in the multicenter cohort. PLA scores predicted 30-day mortality better than APACHE II and NUTRIC scores and provide a basis for future studies to determine whether PLA-guided nutritional intervention improves the outcomes of patients in ICUs.