Research on Parameter Optimization of the Optimal Schedule Model of Water Resources for the Jiaodong Water Transfer Project Based on the ICCP Model

Abstract

Establishing an optimal operation model of water resources is a crucial mean to promote the social and economic development in the Jiaodong area, where water resources are seriously deficient. Constraints of the optimal operation model mainly include water balance constraint, discharge capacity constraint, and constraint on the full utilization of operating water. For water transfer projects that have been in operation for decades, the parameters of these constraints, such as Discharge Capacity (DC), Water Conveyance Efficiency (WCE), Evapotranspiration (E), and Water Supply Volume (WSV), have changed from their original design values, which in turn affect the results of the operation model. In order to address the uncertainties caused by corresponding parameters, according to the characteristics of each parameter, an Interval-Chance Constrained Programming (ICCP) model for the Jiaodong Water Transfer Project was proposed. Interval Programming (IP) and Chance-Constrained Programming (CCP) were used to optimize the parameters of constraints involving WCE, DC, E, and WSV. Then, the Sobol method was used to analyze the sensitivity of each parameter to the operating objective function. The results reveal that (1) total water shortage ratio decreased by [14.82%, 17.26%], [14.81%, 17.25%], and [14.82%, 17.26%], respectively, under the incoming water condition of 50%, 75%, and 95%, indicating that ICCP model can adequately consider complex uncertainties and effectively alleviate water shortage; (2) WCE and DC are important parameters for optimal operation model of water resources, and therefore, channels should be regularly maintained to ensure that WCE and DC would not reduce; (3) Decision variables in this study are in the form of intervals, which are more reasonable because they provide more decision-making options to managers.