Water Shortage Simulation Using a System Dynamics Approach: A Case Study of the Rafsanjan City

Abstract

Water shortage and its interconnected and integrated management is one of the life crises in recent years. Factors such as population growth, plurality of population needs, traditional farming methods, climate change, and water waste are among the contributing factors to this crisis. The complexity of water sources and consumption systems makes the management and decision-making related to this resource very difficult. This research aims to study the effective factors in the water sources and consumption system of Rafsanjan city and suggests a simulated model of water shortage and its causes. In this research, water shortage crises were simulated using system dynamics. Important variables of the water shortage crisis are identified and optimized using the Design of Experiments (DOE) method. Vensim software was considered to illustrate the simulations of five scenarios aiming at better managing water resources and dealing with the water shortage crisis in this city.