A Three-Parameter Hydrological Model for Monthly Runoff Simulation—A Case Study of Upper Hanjiang River Basin

Abstract

Monthly hydrological models are useful tools for runoff simulation and prediction. This study proposes a three-parameter monthly hydrological model based on the proportionality hypothesis (TMPH) and applies to the Upper Hanjiang River Basin (UHRB) in China. Two major modules are involved in the TMPH: the actual evapotranspiration and runoff, in which the coupled water–energy balance equation and the proportionality hypothesis are used for calculation, respectively. It is worth mentioning that the proportionality hypothesis was extended to the partitioning of the available water into water loss and runoff at the monthly scale, which demonstrates that the ratio of runoff to its potential value is equal to the ratio of continuing water loss to its potential value. Results demonstrate that the TMPH model performs well when the NSE values are 0.79 and 0.83, and the KGE values are 0.86 and 0.78 for calibration period and validation period, respectively. The widely used two-parameter monthly water balance (TWBM) model and ABCD model are compared with the proposed model. Results show that TMPH performs better than TWBM model with NSE increased by 0.07 and 0.11, and KGE increased by 0.02 and 0.16, respectively, whereas the TMPH performs similarly as the ABCD model in the calibration period, and performs slightly better in the validation period, with NSE increased by 0.02, and KGE increased by 0.03. Sensitivity analysis show that the simulation result is most sensitive to parameter n, followed by SC and λ. In summary, the proposed model has strong applicability to the study area.