Predicting Volume of Distribution in Neonates: Performance of Physiologically Based Pharmacokinetic Modelling

Abstract

The volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) in neonates is still often estimated through isometric scaling from adult values, disregarding developmental changes beyond body weight. This study aimed to compare the accuracy of two physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) Vss prediction methods in neonates (Poulin & Theil with Berezhkovskiy correction (P&T+) and Rodgers & Rowland (R&R)) with isometrical scaling. PBPK models were developed for 24 drugs using in-vitro and in-silico data. Simulations were done in Simcyp (V22) using predefined populations. Clinical data from 86 studies in neonates (including preterms) were used for comparison, and accuracy was assessed using (absolute) average fold errors ((A)AFEs). Isometric scaling resulted in underestimated Vss values in neonates (AFE: 0.61), and both PBPK methods reduced the magnitude of underprediction (AFE: 0.82–0.83). The P&T+ method demonstrated superior overall accuracy compared to isometric scaling (AAFE of 1.68 and 1.77, respectively), while the R&R method exhibited lower overall accuracy (AAFE: 2.03). Drug characteristics (LogP and ionization type) and inclusion of preterm neonates did not significantly impact the magnitude of error associated with isometric scaling or PBPK modeling. These results highlight both the limitations and the applicability of PBPK methods for the prediction of Vss in the absence of clinical data.