Using a State-Bounding Observer to Predict the Guaranteed Limits of Drug Amounts in Rats after Oral Administration Based on an Uncertain Pharmacokinetic Model

Abstract

In the first part of this paper, the problem of using an uncertain pharmacokinetic model is resolved to determine drug concentrations in rats after the oral administration of drug suspensions with and without added tenside. To this end, a generalized pharmacokinetic model determining the guaranteed limits of drug concentrations was designed. Based on this, the design of the so-called state-bounding observer is described in the second part. Rather than being driven by the output of the pharmacokinetic model, the observer can be driven exclusively by a concentration collected from a suitable part of the body and predict the possible risk of the drug concentration not remaining within the therapeutic range for a sufficiently long time. Specifically, the observer determines the upper and lower limits of the concentrations in all the compartments, especially those that are inaccessible for the collection of samples. The proposed approaches are demonstrated by examples.