Do AutoML-Based QSAR Models Fulfill OECD Principles for Regulatory Assessment? A 5-HT1A Receptor Case

Abstract

The drug discovery and development process requires a lot of time, financial, and workforce resources. Any reduction in these burdens might benefit all stakeholders in the healthcare domain, including patients, government, and companies. One of the critical stages in drug discovery is a selection of molecular structures with a strong affinity to a particular molecular target. The possible solution is the development of predictive models and their application in the screening process, but due to the complexity of the problem, simple and statistical models might not be sufficient for practical application. The manuscript presents the best-in-class predictive model for the serotonin 1A receptor affinity and its validation according to the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development guidelines for regulatory purposes. The model was developed based on a database with close to 9500 molecules by using an automatic machine learning tool (AutoML). The model selection was conducted based on the Akaike information criterion value and 10-fold cross-validation routine, and later good predictive ability was confirmed with an additional external validation dataset with over 700 molecules. Moreover, the multi-start technique was applied to test if an automatic model development procedure results in reliable results.