Impact of Climate Change and Technological Innovation on the Energy Performance and Built form of Future Cities

Abstract

The building and transportation sectors are responsible for the greatest proportion of energy consumption in cities. While they are intrinsically interlinked with urban built form and density, climate change and technological innovation are having an effect on their relative contributions. This paper aims to develop an optimisation framework to facilitate the identification of the most energy-efficient urban built forms and urban geometry for the future built environment that can be adapted to the changing climate and ongoing technological development. It examines future scenarios for the city of London as a temperate climate zone (as a case study), in 2050, and contrasts it with the present situation. Specifically, the impact of climate change along with the penetration of electric vehicles into the transportation system that can be charged via rooftop photovoltaics is investigated. This study initially develops the geometrical models of four selected urban built forms and, secondly, analyzes their energy performance using an urban energy simulation software. The results, showing the impact of future scenarios on building energy performance, urban built form and density, demonstrate that court and tunnel-court built forms show better energy performance for future development. It is therefore recommended that for future urban developments in London, deep plan court and tunnel-court buildings with a lower number of storeys and a large cut-off angle are more advantageous in terms of building energy to accommodate the expected climate change. Finally, results of simulation trials indicate that the total building energy demand in 2050 is considerably higher than in the present climate as a result of additional cooling load and electric vehicle charging load.