Review of Nonpoint Source Pollution Models: Current Status and Future Direction

Abstract

Modelling tools are commonly used for predicting non-point source (NPS) pollutants and it is timely to review progress that has been made in terms of the development of NPS models. This paper: (1) proposes a systematic description of model framework and generalizes some commonly used models; (2) identifies the common challenges in model structure and applications; (3) summarizes the future directions of NPS models. Challenges in model construction and application are based on the following: (1) limitations in understanding specific NPS pollution processes; (2) model expansion to different scales; (3) data scarcity and its impacts on model performance; (4) prediction uncertainty due to model input, parameter and model structure; (5) insufficient accuracy for decision-making. Finally, this paper proposes future directions for model development, including: (1) a source–flow–sink framework for model development; (2) standardization for model input and parameter; (3) reliable decision support for environmental management. The findings of this review provide helps in the accurate prediction and management of NPS pollution around the world.