Automatic Early Warning to Derive Eruption Source Parameters of Paroxysmal Activity at Mt. Etna (Italy)

Abstract

Tephra dispersal and fallout resulting from explosive activity of Mt. Etna (Italy) represent a significant threat to the surrounding inhabited areas as well as to aviation operations. An early-warning system aimed at foreseeing the onset of paroxysmal activity has been developed, combining a thermal infrared camera, infrasonic network, and a weather radar. In this way, it is possible to identify the onset of a lava fountain as well as to determine the associated mass eruption rate (MER) and top plume height (HTP). The new methodology, defined as the paroxysmal early-warning (PEW) alert system, is based on the analysis of some explosive eruptions that occurred between 2011 and 2021 at Etna, simultaneously observed by the thermal camera and infrasound systems dislocated around the summit eruptive craters, and by the weather radar, located at about 32 km from the summit craters. This work represents an important step towards the mitigation of the potential impact associated with the tephra dispersal and fallout during paroxysms at Etna, which can be applied to other volcanoes with similar activity and monitoring strategies.