A Nomogram Based on Preoperative Lipiodol Deposition after Sequential Retreatment with Transarterial Chemoembolization to Predict Prognoses for Intermediate-Stage Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Abstract

(1) Background: Conventional transarterial chemoembolization (cTACE) is the mainstay treatment for patients with Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) B-stage hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). However, BCLC B-stage patients treated with cTACE represent a prognostically heterogeneous population. We aim to develop and validate a lipiodol-deposition-based nomogram for predicting the long-term survival of BCLC B-stage HCC patients after sequential cTACE. (2) Methods: In this retrospective study, 229 intermediate-stage HCC patients from two hospitals were separately allocated to a training cohort (n = 142) and a validation cohort (n = 87); these patients underwent repeated TACE (≥4 TACE sessions) between May 2010 and May 2017. Lipiodol deposition was assessed by semiautomatic volumetric measurement with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) before cTACE and was characterized by two ordinal levels: ≤50% (low) and >50% (high). A clinical lipiodol deposition nomogram was constructed based on independent risk factors identified by univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses, and the optimal cutoff points were obtained. Prediction models were assessed by time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic curves, calibration curves, and decision curve analysis. (3) Results: The median number of TACE sessions was five (range, 4–7) in both cohorts. Before the TACE-3 sessions, the newly constructed nomogram based on lipiodol deposition achieved desirable diagnostic performance in the training and validation cohorts with AUCs of 0.72 (95% CI, 0.69–0.74) and 0.71 (95% CI, 0.68–0.73), respectively, and demonstrated higher predictive ability compared with previously published prognostic models (all p < 0.05). The prognostic nomogram obtained good clinical usefulness in predicting the patient outcomes after TACE. (4) Conclusions: Based on each pre-TACE lipiodol deposition, two sessions are recommended before abandoning cTACE or combining treatment for patients with intermediate-stage HCC. Furthermore, the nomogram based on pre-TACE-3 lipiodol deposition can be used to predict the prognoses of patients with BCLC B-stage HCC.