The Impact of Banking Sector Development on Economic Growth: The Case of Vietnam’s Transitional Economy

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to examine the role of the banking system in the growth of the Vietnamese economy in the process of the transition that started in the early 1990s. An ARDL approach-based multivariate regression technique is applied to shed light on the impact on the growth of banking development, which is measured by broad money and bank credit. The empirical findings confirm a positive long-term effect of banking development on growth, reflecting the important role of the banking system in a typical bank-based financial system in mobilizing and supplying capital to the economy, thus contributing to growth throughout the process of economic transition. The empirical findings also indicate a nonlinear effect and a diminishing marginal effect of banking development in the sub-period 2007–2020. The thresholds for the two measures of banking development are estimated to be around 107% and 101% of the GDP, respectively. This finding suggests that bank credit expansion needs to be closely controlled to be adaptive to the capital-absorptive capacity of the economy. To a certain extent, this finding is also an indicator of the ongoing extensive growth model adopted in Vietnam, which relies heavily on the quantity of invested capital.