Where Are We Going Now? The Current and Future Distributions of the Monk Parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and Eurasian Collared Dove (Streptopelia decaocto) in a Megalopolis

Abstract

The monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) and the Eurasian collared dove (Streptopelia decaocto) are two of the most prevalent invasive species globally due to their high dispersal ability. Since these birds were first recorded (1999 for the monk parakeet and 2013 for Eurasian collared dove) in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA), both species have spread rapidly throughout the area. However, the impacts of global climate changes on the distribution patterns of these species remain poorly studied across the MCMA. Therefore, based on an ecological niche modeling approach, we assessed the expansion and potential invasion of both species in this megalopolis using current and future climate projections (year 2050). Our results estimated that the current suitable areas are 5564 km2 for the monk parakeet and 5489 km2 for the Eurasian collared dove, covering ~70% of the study area, suggesting a rapidly invading species, as expected. We observed a slight decrease (up to 24%) in both species in future climate scenarios, but our models estimated that the sizes of the suitable areas would remain stable. We found that the range expansion of these species in the megalopolis may be largely attributed to their propensity for jump dispersion and short-time niche expansion ability. Our findings allow for a better understanding of the factors contributing to the range expansion of the monk parakeet and the Eurasian collared dove in Mexico and can better inform the monitoring guidelines for and assessments of these invasive species.