Spatio-Temporal Evolution and Multi-Scenario Prediction of Ecosystem Carbon Storage in Chang-Zhu-Tan Urban Agglomeration Based on the FLUS-InVEST Model

Abstract

Land use/land cover change has a significant indicative effect on the carbon storage of terrestrial ecosystems. We selected Chang-Zhu-Tan urban agglomeration as the research object, coupled FLUS and InVEST models to explore the changes in land use and carbon storage in the region from 2010 to 2020, and predicted their spatiotemporal evolution characteristics under three scenarios in 2035: natural development (S1), ecological development priority (S2) and urban development priority (S3). Spatial autocorrelation was used to analyze the spatial distribution of carbon storage. The results revealed a rapid urban expansion encroaching on cultivated land and forest from 2010 to 2020, resulting in a total urban area of 1957.50 km2 by 2020. Carbon storage experienced a total loss of 6.86 × 106 t, primarily between 2010 and 2015. The InVEST model indicated a spatial distribution in a pattern of “low in the middle and high around”, with areas of low carbon storage showing large-scale faceted aggregate distribution by 2035. Under different regional development scenarios, the S3 exhibited the highest carbon storage loss, reaching 150.93 × 106 t. The S1 experienced a decline of 136.30 × 106 t, while the S2 only experienced a reduction of 24.26 × 106 t. The primary driving factor of carbon storage reduction is the conversion of forest and cultivated land into urban areas. It is recommended that the implementation of regional ecological protection policies and the optimization of land use structures effectively minimize the loss of carbon storage.