Monitoring the Condition of Wetlands in the Syr Darya Floodplain—How Healthy Are the Tugai Forests in Kazakhstan?

Abstract

Tugai wetlands, including the forests of Populus euphratica Oliv. and P. pruinosa Schrenk, are major biodiversity hotspots within semi-arid and arid ecozones. However, for over a century, Central Asian river systems have been severely affected by dam regulation, water withdrawals for large-scale irrigated agriculture, and deforestation. To support sustainable use and protection of this threatened forest type, we provide information on the distribution and degradation status of Tugai wetlands in the Syr Darya floodplain using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) time series from Landsat 7 and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS). An accuracy assessment confirmed the validity of the MODIS-based wetland map, with an overall accuracy of 78.6%. This was considerably better than the Landsat product, mainly due to the greater temporal frequency of the MODIS time series. We further calculated trends and breakpoints between 2001 and 2016 using the BFAST algorithm. We found negative trends for nearly a third of the wetlands. Breakpoint detection showed major stress events in the years 2001, 2009, and 2016. Our study revealed the temporal and spatial distribution and vitality of an endangered forest ecosystem that has rarely been studied thus far. Climate change may accelerate the destabilization of the Tugai forests at the Syr Darya floodplain.