Demographic Aspects of Urban Shrinkage in Serbia: Trajectory, Variety, and Drivers of Shrinking Cities

Abstract

Many European countries have faced the process of urban shrinkage in recent decades. Due to the various theoretical aspects of urban shrinkage, there are numerous approaches to the interpretation of this process. The most widely accepted of these refers to the demographic component as the starting point for defining this phenomenon, with the decline of the total population as the main indicator. The demographic shrinkage of cities in Serbia is a process that has been in place since the 1960s, with the dynamics of spatial-demographic and socioeconomic transformation during the post-socialist transition having exacerbated urban shrinkage. As a result, over 80% of urban settlements are affected by it. This paper identifies the trajectory and spatio-temporal patterns of the intensity and dynamics of urban shrinkage for the period from 1961 to 2022. The aim of this work is to show the diversity of shrinking cities and to explore the driving forces behind this process in Serbia. In this study, we conducted an analysis of population trends in 167 urban settlements in Serbia. Further analysis included the identification of contrasting spatio-temporal and demographic dynamic patterns characterized by either natural losses or out-migration. Due to the complex urban trajectories, a typology was created that distinguishes four different types of shrinking cities: continuously shrinking cities, episodically shrinking cities, recently shrinking cities, and resurgent cities. The results are important to achieving a better understanding of how patterns of local population trends change over time and space. The result will thus be a step towards explaining the main demographic factors causing population change and inter- and intra-regional differences between shrinking cities in Serbia, as well as towards examining urban renewal opportunities in the future.