Future Travel Intentions in Light of Risk and Uncertainty: An Extended Theory of Planned Behavior

Abstract

COVID-19 has affected travel and will undoubtedly impact how people view travel and future intentions to travel as we adjust to life moving forward. Understanding how people arrive at these travel intentions will be paramount for managers and planners in determining how best to reactively and proactively plan for tourism, especially considering perceived risk and uncertainty related to COVID-19. By extending the theory of planned behavior, this study aims to examine the relationship between perceived risk, perceived uncertainty, subjective norms, attitudes about future travel, and perceived behavioral control in explaining individuals’ intentions to travel in the near future. This study employed a quantitative research method, and data were gathered using an online questionnaire distributed through Qualtrics from a sample of 541 potential travelers (representing residents of 46 US states) from 23 June 2020 to 1 July 2020. Of the eight hypotheses tested, four were supported. Surprisingly, neither perceived risk nor uncertainty were significant within the model. Subjective norms significantly predicted both attitudes about traveling and perceived behavioral control. Subjective norms and perceived behavioral control, in turn, explained a moderate degree of variation in individuals’ intentions to travel. Study implications, limitations, and future research suggestions are offered. One of the main managerial implications includes the need for destinations to be proactive and focus on intentional planning for sustainable tourism.