Distributed Generation Forecasting Based on Rolling Graph Neural Network (ROLL-GNN)

Abstract

The future power grid will have more distributed energy sources, and the widespread access of distributed energy sources has the potential to improve the energy efficiency, resilience, and sustainability of the system. However, distributed energy, mainly wind power generation and photovoltaic power generation, has the characteristics of intermittency and strong randomness, which will bring challenges to the safe operation of the power grid. Accurate prediction of solar power generation with high spatial and temporal resolution is very important for the normal operation of the power grid. In order to improve the accuracy of distributed photovoltaic power generation prediction, this paper proposes a new distributed photovoltaic power generation prediction model: ROLL-GNN, which is defined as a prediction model based on rolling prediction of the graph neural network. The ROLL-GNN uses the perspective of graph signal processing to model distributed generation production timeseries data as signals on graphs. In the model, the similarity of data is used to capture their spatio-temporal dependencies to achieve improved prediction accuracy.