Climate Change, Crop Yields, and Grain Quality of C3 Cereals: A Meta-Analysis of [CO2], Temperature, and Drought Effects

Abstract

Cereal yield and grain quality may be impaired by environmental factors associated with climate change. Major factors, including elevated CO2 concentration ([CO2]), elevated temperature, and drought stress, have been identified as affecting C3 crop production and quality. A meta-analysis of existing literature was performed to study the impact of these three environmental factors on the yield and nutritional traits of C3 cereals. Elevated [CO2] stimulates grain production (through larger grain numbers) and starch accumulation but negatively affects nutritional traits such as protein and mineral content. In contrast to [CO2], increased temperature and drought cause significant grain yield loss, with stronger effects observed from the latter. Elevated temperature decreases grain yield by decreasing the thousand grain weight (TGW). Nutritional quality is also negatively influenced by the changing climate, which will impact human health. Similar to drought, heat stress decreases starch content but increases grain protein and mineral concentrations. Despite the positive effect of elevated [CO2], increases to grain yield seem to be counterbalanced by heat and drought stress. Regarding grain nutritional value and within the three environmental factors, the increase in [CO2] is possibly the more detrimental to face because it will affect cereal quality independently of the region.